12 development scenarios scored across 20 objectives. Every weighting scheme produces the same result: preserving the forest wins.
All scenarios scored against 20 objectives using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with equal weighting. Robustness tested across 7 alternative weight schemes (environmental, financial, social, etc.). Recommendation based on rank consistency and Pareto dominance.
| Rank | ID | Scenario | MCDA Score | Pareto | Rank Range | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H | Forest Preserved; No Stadium; Housing MC + City | 92.4 | Dominant | 1 – 1 | Proceed |
| 2 | E | Forest as Park; Stadium 53 Birch; Housing MC | 84.0 | Dominant | 2 – 3 | Proceed |
| 3 | F | Forest Preserved; Stadium Brevard Rd; Housing MC | 84.0 | Dominant | 3 – 4 | Proceed |
| 4 | I | No Stadium; Forest Preserved; Non-RE Revenue | 83.7 | Dominant | 2 – 5 | Proceed |
| 5 | G | Forest Preserved; Stadium South Slope; Housing MC | 83.2 | Dominated | 4 – 5 | Consider |
| 6 | J | Research Forest (Living Laboratory) | 80.7 | Dominant | 6 – 6 | Consider |
| 7 | B | Full Forest Preservation | 72.0 | Dominated | 7 – 7 | Consider |
| 8 | D | Light Housing + Community Park | 61.0 | Dominated | 8 – 8 | Eliminate |
| 9 | C2 | Medium Housing + Buffers | 43.4 | Dominant | 9 – 9 | Eliminate |
| 10 | C | Heavy Housing on Forest | 35.4 | Dominant | 10 – 10 | Eliminate |
| 11 | A2 | Stadium Only on Forest | 21.2 | Dominated (8) | 11 – 11 | Eliminate |
| 12 | A | Stadium + Housing on Forest (AECOM proposal) | 17.0 | Dominated (9) | 12 – 12 | Eliminate |
Source: coa_comparison.json — MCDA equal-weight scoring, 20 objectives. Pareto "Dominant" = not outscored by any other scenario on all objectives. "Dominated (N)" = outscored by N other scenarios. Rank Range = best and worst rank across 7 weight schemes.
Toggle scenarios to see their spatial footprints on the UNCA forest. The forest boundary (green dashed line) is always visible. Scenario E shows the alternative 53 Birch St stadium site to the south.
The highest-ranked scenarios represent fundamentally different strategies. H preserves everything. E relocates the stadium. A is the current AECOM proposal. The gap between H and A is 75 points.
No stadium. Housing on MC parcels + city infill. Forest stays intact.
Stadium at 53 Birch St. Forest becomes public park. Housing on MC parcels.
$204M stadium + 800 units on the forest. Clears 85% canopy.
Added 2026-04-29 in response to the FOTW strategic pivot. Rather than fight the TDA-funded stadium, pitch the woods to the same Buncombe County TDA capital-projects pipeline as a "family-friendly experience" consistent with FY26 BCTDA priorities. The forest is preserved; light interpretive infrastructure (trails, dendrochronology exhibit, salamander/owl programming) is funded by TDA capital.
Forest preserved. CapX flows from BCTDA tourism pipeline. Meow Wolf precedent — but ecological.
BCTDA FY26 priority project types (per March 27, 2026 Annual Planning Session, CSL Consultants report):
The fit: A 45-acre intact urban Appalachian forest with 9 species of Trillium, 8 native orchids, vernal pools used as amphibian breeding habitat, 150-year-old white oaks, and a documented climate archive going back to 1876 already is what the CSL report described — at a small fraction of the build cost of any of the 8 facility types studied.
BCTDA capacity: $34.5M FY27 budget; can take on up to 6 ongoing debt-service capital projects under post-2022 NC law.
Engagement path: The BCTDA is a public body whose meetings are open to the public; agendas and contact information are posted at exploreasheville.com.
The strategic insight: Scenario K does not require defeating Scenario A on its merits. It re-routes the same capital pipeline (BCTDA debt-service for capital projects) to a different recipient (the existing forest, programmed lightly) with a better fit to BCTDA's own stated FY26 priorities. The MCDA shows K as top-3 in environmental and resilience weight schemes — the schemes most aligned with UNCA's own Climate Resilient Campus StoryMap.
To ensure fairness, we re-scored all scenarios using weights designed to favor the developer's proposal.
We tested 7 different weighting schemes: equal, environmental-priority, financial-priority, social-priority, university-priority, developer-priority, and community-priority. Under every single scheme, Scenario H (forest preserved) ranks #1.
Even under the most developer-favorable weighting, the gap between H (score ~79) and A (score ~40) narrows from ~75 points to ~40 points — but never closes. The developer's own best-case scenario still loses by a wide margin.
The AECOM proposal (Scenario A) ranks last under every weight scheme tested. This is not a close call. It is not a matter of perspective. The forest destruction proposal is the worst option by any measure.
Why? Scenario A scores 0 on tree canopy, urban heat, carbon, and air/water quality — four objectives that carry weight in every scheme. No reweighting can overcome four zeroes when other scenarios score 83–100 on those same dimensions.
GIS site-suitability analysis scored all publicly-owned parcels in Buncombe County for stadium potential. 53 Birch St scored 100/100 algorithmically but is disqualified (cemetery adjacency). The top viable sites are 1568 Brevard Rd (123 ac, County, 90/100) and 226 Fairway Dr (111 ac, City, 90/100).
| Rank | Score | Acres | Owner | Address | Current Use | Floodplain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- | 100* | 48.96 | City of Asheville | 53 Birch St (disqualified — cemetery) | Cemeteries / Burial | No |
| 1 | 90 | 72.75 | United States of America | 99999 Elk Mountain Scenic Hwy | Government / Exempt / Vacant | No |
| 3 | 90 | 21.34 | City of Asheville | 32 Buchanan Pl | City Parks | No |
| 4 | 90 | 64.95 | City of Asheville | 498 Azalea Rd | Government / Exempt / Vacant | No |
| 5 | 90 | 234.63 | United States of America | 99999 Ox Creek Rd | Government / Exempt / Vacant | No |
| 6 | 90 | 110.97 | City of Asheville | 226 Fairway Dr | Gov. Park / Community Center | No |
| 7 | 90 | 85.36 | United States of America | 99999 Gashes Creek Rd | Government Offices | No |
| 8 | 90 | 313.19 | Town of Weaverville Watershed | 99999 Eller Cove Rd | Water Storage | No |
| 9 | 90 | 123.33 | County of Buncombe | 1568 Brevard Rd | Government / Exempt / Vacant | No |
| 10 | 90 | 47.49 | State of North Carolina | 70 Nut Hill Rd | Government / Exempt / Vacant | No |
Source: scored_alternatives.geojson — GIS site-suitability model scoring on acreage, slope, road access, floodplain status, existing use, and ownership. 30+ publicly-owned parcels scored. Top 10 shown. All sites require on-the-ground feasibility verification.